INSIGHTS
Wind in the Willows
The Old Playbook… Or the New?
The pursuit of profit in down markets has always been difficult. Academics have searched for years to find assets that go up in down markets or down in up markets. Market technicians have been scanning charts and data for decades in pursuit of durable patterns and inflection points with the hope of finding better hedges. They use measures of volume and direction to determine what happens next.
Banking Crisis Continues – Ya Ain’t Got Half of What You Thought You Had
Banking Crisis Continues. Anytime an industry is cumulatively down 35%, investors and the media start asking when the right time is to step in and buy.
California’s Self-Inflicted Wounds
Last month Los Angeles’ so called Mansion Tax went into effect. This tax, supported by 57% of voters was intended to help the city’s problem with homelessness. Instead, this tax is likely to crush sales of properties worth over $5M, and devastate transactions in properties over $10M. While this transfer of wealth is called the Mansion Tax, the name is a complete misstatement of what the tax actually is.
Private Equity – Next Stage of the Cycle
We’ve spoken about the creativity of private equity firms and the current imbalance in the need for capital vs the capital that is currently being deployed
VC, Tech, and A Good Vintage
No, we’re not talking about wine. Warren Buffet once famously said, “Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy” and as investors these words are particularly valuable around market inflections. Following the fall of yet another bank with ties to the venture capital and private equity community (First Republic), we are sharply reminded of what fear really looks like.
Logistics and Chinese Black Box – Fear Guides Massive Economic Shifts
Chinese Black Box. The WSJ highlighted stories about China shutting down the data sources to communicate their economic activity to the outside world
Speaking of Things That Will Make the Fed’s Life Difficult – The Dollar
The Dollar. Some assume that the dollar moves with the strength of the economy, some assume it has to do with rates, others still see a strong or weak currency
Building Boom – We’re in the Strangest Places if You Look at it Right
Building boom. Even in the wake of a third major bank failure in 2023, the US Economy seems relatively unfazed by a continued string of bad news.
Willow Creek Partners Celebrates its 6th Anniversary!
Willow Creek Partners celebrated its 6th anniversary! We're grateful to our investors, employees, and partners for their unwavering support and dedication
1 Meme Stock Down – Understanding the Difference Between a Funding Gap and Secular Change
Meme stock down. At the end of 2013, BBBY common stock was worth more than $17B.
Worker Migration Makes Inflation Contagious
Worker migration. Workers move for a lot of different reasons. Some are looking for a better paying job, others are looking for more affordable housing
Believe it if You Need it, or Leave it if You Dare – Rural Places Need More Workers
Rural Places Need More Workers. Every couple of years the government finds ways to commit more to investing in infrastructure
Office Sublet - An Indication of Valuation Uncertainty
Westside Los Angeles Office is a relatively narrow market. It is also an area of the country that is seeing a particularly acute problem for office rents.
Millennials, Homes, and Multifamily
It’s been a weird few years for young people. Millennials have seen the dotcom crash, the global financial crisis and Covid- 19, all at critical life stages.
Trouble Ahead, Trouble Behind: Consumer Debt and BNPL Better Watch Their Speed
Trouble Ahead, Trouble Behind: Consumer Debt and BNPL Better Watch Their Speed. It is of critical importance to understand the mental state of the consumer.
The IRS Got One Right!!!
It’s not very often that investors appreciate the IRS, so this is a moment that we should celebrate!!!!
PE Buying PE Debt
Over the past few weeks, we’ve spoken a bit about the financial creativity of private equity firms.
Construction and Factory Work is Back in the US!!!
Construction and factory work. One of the more difficult tasks economists have to face is gauging how much politicians are overpromising before underdelivering.
Since it Costs a Lot to Win, and Even More to Lose, You and me Better Spend Some Time, Wondrin’ What to Choose.
Last Wednesday the Labor Department released their Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and while these data were in line with expectations (maybe a little better), there is a continued expectation for rates to increase another 25bp at the next Federal Reserve meeting. Year over year numbers suggest core inflation around 5.6% which is still a far cry from the Fed’s 2% target, but month over month data suggesting 0.1% is actually quite exciting as it is down from 0.4% a month ago.
Getting Leverage as a Private Equity Buyer
Getting Leverage as a Private Equity Buyer. Investors and asset owners continue to explore deals, but given the uncertainty, the bid-ask spreads are WIDE.